Sonda S.A. MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.52%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
24.09%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
25.60%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 350% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0272 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8597 | 157.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0953 | 18.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7023 | 0.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7500 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities