V-Lab
Sonda S.A. MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.69%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
24.37%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
25.63%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 348% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0269 | 7.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8605 | 157.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0937 | 18.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7022 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7500 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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