V-Lab
Sonda S.A. MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
29.34%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
29.27%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
29.20%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 351% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0268 | 7.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8607 | 158.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0942 | 18.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7009 | 0.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7529 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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