V-Lab
Sonda S.A. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.33%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
17.97%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
19.46%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0955 | 8.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0960 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8281 | 30.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0182 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.0352 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -0.1238 | -1.42 |
| γ4 | 0.1666 | 2.04** |
| γ5 | -0.2148 | -3.47*** |
| γ6 | 0.1736 | 4.36*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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