V-Lab
Sonda S.A. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.43%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Week
25.84%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Month
24.27%
decreased by 3.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0942 | 7.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0947 | 6.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8314 | 31.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0174 | 0.34 |
| γ2 | 0.0374 | 0.41 |
| γ3 | -0.1265 | -1.42 |
| γ4 | 0.1689 | 2.03** |
| γ5 | -0.2146 | -3.43*** |
| γ6 | 0.1715 | 4.28*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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