V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.15%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
16.21%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
16.42%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2740 | 6.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0513 | 7.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9389 | 115.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 2.36** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2740 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0513 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9389 | 115.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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