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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

31.14%

increased by 4.60%

1 Week

31.22%

increased by 4.68%

1 Month

31.43%

increased by 4.89%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6889
4.95***
αARCH0.0939
8.23***
βGARCH0.8303
39.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0054
-0.12
γ20.0013
0.02
γ30.0849
2.27**
γ4-0.1666
-5.27***
γ50.1299
4.13***
γ6-0.0483
-1.63
γ7-0.0297
-0.98
γ80.0608
2.53**

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6889
4.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0939
8.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8303
39.15***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0054
-0.12
γ20.0013
0.02
γ30.0849
2.27**
γ4-0.1666
-5.27***
γ50.1299
4.13***
γ6-0.0483
-1.63
γ7-0.0297
-0.98
γ80.0608
2.53**

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days