V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.17%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
39.12%
decreased by 2.57%
1 Month
36.35%
decreased by 5.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6921 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8302 | 38.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0052 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.0007 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.0869 | 2.29** |
| γ4 | -0.1692 | -5.28*** |
| γ5 | 0.1300 | 4.12*** |
| γ6 | -0.0453 | -1.51 |
| γ7 | -0.0338 | -1.09 |
| γ8 | 0.0635 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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