V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.19%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
33.01%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
32.57%
decreased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6945 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 8.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8306 | 39.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0056 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 0.0018 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | 0.0850 | 2.25** |
| γ4 | -0.1673 | -5.24*** |
| γ5 | 0.1294 | 4.10*** |
| γ6 | -0.0463 | -1.55 |
| γ7 | -0.0321 | -1.04 |
| γ8 | 0.0622 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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