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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

34.91%

increased by 0.40%

1 Week

34.58%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

33.74%

decreased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7037
4.99***
αARCH0.0940
8.23***
βGARCH0.8304
39.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0042
-0.10
γ20.0001
0.00
γ30.0851
2.26**
γ4-0.1669
-5.24***
γ50.1294
4.10***
γ6-0.0469
-1.57
γ7-0.0309
-1.01
γ80.0610
2.52**

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7037
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0940
8.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8304
39.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0042
-0.10
γ20.0001
0.00
γ30.0851
2.26**
γ4-0.1669
-5.24***
γ50.1294
4.10***
γ6-0.0469
-1.57
γ7-0.0309
-1.01
γ80.0610
2.52**

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days