V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
36.27%
decreased by 6.75%
1 Week
35.30%
decreased by 7.72%
1 Month
32.82%
decreased by 10.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4081 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2575 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6608 | 17.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.1846 | 8.18*** |
| γ2 | -0.2849 | -7.95*** |
| γ3 | 0.1682 | 6.20*** |
| γ4 | -0.0942 | -3.59*** |
| γ5 | 0.0341 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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