Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.32%
increased by 8.51%
1 Week
28.15%
increased by 9.34%
1 Month
31.12%
increased by 12.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1161 | 3.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.1433 | 4.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8488 | 32.58*** |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1161 | 3.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1433 | 4.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8488 | 32.58*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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