V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
35.79%
1 Week
36.30%
1 Month
38.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 24% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1001 | 13.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1390 | 16.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 136.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0637 | -3.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6850 | 19.20*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities