Han Kook Capital Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.30%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
28.50%
increased by 10.07%
1 Month
32.64%
increased by 14.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1522 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1813 | 8.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8109 | 46.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.1478 | -0.76 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1522 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1813 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8109 | 46.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1478 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
Other Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on International Equities