V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
49.51%
decreased by 5.42%
1 Week
49.88%
decreased by 5.05%
1 Month
51.35%
decreased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 83.8421 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1090 | 130.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 7,511.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5585 | 374.98*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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