V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
26.64%
1 Week
27.40%
1 Month
30.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 84.1961 | 1.84* |
| αARCH | 0.1090 | 32.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,881.36*** |
| νDF | 2.5554 | 94.51*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 84.1961 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1090 | 32.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,881.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5554 | 94.51*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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