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Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

26.04%

increased by 5.44%

1 Week

26.83%

increased by 6.23%

1 Month

29.76%

increased by 9.16%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.55 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst85.6781
1.83*
αARCH0.1100
32.87***
βGARCH0.9990
1,877.82***
νDF2.5525
94.75***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

85.6781
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1100
32.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,877.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5525
94.75***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days