V-Lab
Cellnex Telecom SAU GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.88%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
31.37%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
29.96%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 2015 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 6.52 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9779 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0920 | 3.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9352 | 33.15*** |
| νDF | 6.5205 | 0.74 |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9779 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9352 | 33.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5205 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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