V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
126.72%
decreased by 12.44%
1 Week
128.07%
decreased by 11.09%
1 Month
131.03%
decreased by 8.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Sep 14, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.86 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 71.5262 | 1.24 |
| αARCH | 0.0801 | 2.09** |
| βGARCH | 0.9037 | 10.69*** |
| νDF | 2.8592 | 1.66* |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 71.5262 | 1.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 2.09** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9037 | 10.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8592 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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