V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
203.54%
increased by 18.59%
1 Week
194.50%
increased by 9.55%
1 Month
171.04%
decreased by 13.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 2.90 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 71.9828 | 1.30 |
| αARCH | 0.0781 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.9160 | 13.14*** |
| νDF | 2.8975 | 1.83* |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 71.9828 | 1.30 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9160 | 13.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8975 | 1.83* |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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