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V-Lab

Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

46.80%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

47.39%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

49.63%

increased by 2.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 328 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.5506
7.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1230
141.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9979
3,695.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5201
124.89***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

328 days