V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
72.15%
1 Week
72.45%
1 Month
73.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 331 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 60.8337 | 1.85* |
| αARCH | 0.1225 | 35.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9979 | 937.88*** |
| νDF | 3.5174 | 31.49*** |
0.998
Persistence331d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.8337 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1225 | 35.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 937.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5174 | 31.49*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
331 days
Other Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities