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V-Lab
V-Lab

Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

64.37%

decreased by 8.68%

1 Week

64.74%

decreased by 8.31%

1 Month

66.15%

decreased by 6.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 331 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~331 daysv = 3.51 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst61.0460
1.85*
αARCH0.1227
35.36***
βGARCH0.9979
937.00***
νDF3.5131
31.56***

0.998

Persistence

331d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.0460
1.85*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1227
35.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9979
937.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5131
31.56***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

331 days