V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
77.84%
decreased by 4.65%
1 Week
78.09%
decreased by 4.40%
1 Month
79.07%
decreased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 332 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.1990 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1228 | 141.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 3,765.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5189 | 125.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
332 days
Other Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities