V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
64.37%
1 Week
64.74%
1 Month
66.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 331 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 61.0460 | 1.85* |
| αARCH | 0.1227 | 35.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9979 | 937.00*** |
| νDF | 3.5131 | 31.56*** |
0.998
Persistence331d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.0460 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1227 | 35.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 937.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5131 | 31.56*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
331 days
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