V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
59.60%
increased by 2.59%
1 Week
60.44%
increased by 3.43%
1 Month
63.56%
increased by 6.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2891 | 4.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1864 | 6.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8325 | 51.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.0502 | -1.15 |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2891 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1864 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 51.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0502 | -1.15 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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