V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
82.04%
decreased by 5.69%
1 Week
82.42%
decreased by 5.31%
1 Month
83.88%
decreased by 3.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 36% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2847 | 17.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1847 | 27.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 206.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0491 | -4.49*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
Other Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities