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V-Lab

Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

82.04%

decreased by 5.69%

1 Week

82.42%

decreased by 5.31%

1 Month

83.88%

decreased by 3.85%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 36% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2847
17.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1847
27.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8339
206.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0491
-4.49***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days