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Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

59.60%

increased by 2.59%

1 Week

60.44%

increased by 3.43%

1 Month

63.56%

increased by 6.55%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2891
4.49***
αARCH0.1864
6.87***
βGARCH0.8325
51.38***
γleverage-0.0502
-1.15

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2891
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1864
6.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8325
51.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0502
-1.15

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days