Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
148.81%
decreased by 6.16%
1 Week
148.62%
decreased by 6.35%
1 Month
147.89%
decreased by 7.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2460 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1701 | 6.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8504 | 54.00*** |
| γleverage | -0.0492 | -1.20 |
0.996
Persistence170d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2460 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1701 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8504 | 54.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0492 | -1.20 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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