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Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

148.81%

decreased by 6.16%

1 Week

148.62%

decreased by 6.35%

1 Month

147.89%

decreased by 7.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2460
4.37***
αARCH0.1701
6.87***
βGARCH0.8504
54.00***
γleverage-0.0492
-1.20

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2460
4.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1701
6.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8504
54.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0492
-1.20

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days