V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
43.39%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
44.77%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
49.69%
increased by 5.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 37% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2910 | 17.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1868 | 27.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8317 | 203.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0500 | -4.57*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
106 days
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