Freehold Royalties Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
20.70%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
21.73%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 170% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 170% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0337 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0338 | 4.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9308 | 108.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0575 | 2.38** |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0337 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0338 | 4.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9308 | 108.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0575 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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