V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.81%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
22.06%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
22.96%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 171% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 171% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0338 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0338 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9307 | 108.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0577 | 2.39** |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0338 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9307 | 108.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0577 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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