V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.83%
increased by 1.78%
1 Week
19.15%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
20.33%
increased by 3.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0334 | 3.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0336 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9306 | 108.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0586 | 2.42** |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0334 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0336 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9306 | 108.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0586 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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