Freehold Royalties Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
21.13%
increased by 1.88%
1 Week
21.39%
increased by 2.14%
1 Month
22.36%
increased by 3.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~125 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0317 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0679 | 7.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9265 | 100.12*** |
0.994
Persistence125d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0317 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 100.12*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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