Freehold Royalties Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.00%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
19.51%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
21.36%
increased by 3.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0459 | 6.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1494 | 9.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8179 | 76.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0558 | 1.93* |
0.995
Persistence143d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0459 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1494 | 9.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8179 | 76.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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