V-Lab
Bayer AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
39.98%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
39.63%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
38.41%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0955 | 6.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1508 | 8.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7982 | 76.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0539 | 1.96* |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0955 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1508 | 8.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7982 | 76.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0539 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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