Bayer AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
44.74%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
44.25%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Month
42.49%
decreased by 4.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0937 | 27.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1517 | 32.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7992 | 305.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0521 | 7.38*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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