V-Lab
Bayer AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.41%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
32.81%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
36.53%
increased by 5.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0184 | 6.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 54.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0642 | 4.06*** |
| γ2 | -0.1057 | -4.38*** |
| γ3 | 0.0591 | 4.35*** |
| γ4 | -0.0240 | -2.06** |
| γ5 | 0.0209 | 1.47 |
| γ6 | -0.0262 | -2.20** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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