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V-Lab

Bayer AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

31.41%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

32.81%

increased by 1.33%

1 Month

36.53%

increased by 5.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayer AG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0184
6.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0809
8.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8668
54.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0642
4.06***
γ2-0.1057
-4.38***
γ30.0591
4.35***
γ4-0.0240
-2.06**
γ50.0209
1.47
γ6-0.0262
-2.20**

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days