V-Lab
Bayer AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.02%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
32.41%
increased by 2.27%
1 Month
36.11%
increased by 5.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0305 | 6.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0818 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8660 | 54.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0648 | 4.11*** |
| γ2 | -0.1065 | -4.41*** |
| γ3 | 0.0592 | 4.34*** |
| γ4 | -0.0234 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | 0.0195 | 1.39 |
| γ6 | -0.0247 | -2.10** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0305 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8660 | 54.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0648 | 4.11*** |
| γ2 | -0.1065 | -4.41*** |
| γ3 | 0.0592 | 4.34*** |
| γ4 | -0.0234 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | 0.0195 | 1.39 |
| γ6 | -0.0247 | -2.10** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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