Range International Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
369,187,644,972,038,500.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
477,932,371,784,962,900.00%
increased by 108,744,726,812,924,350.00%
1 Month
750,414,525,445,769,700.00%
increased by 381,226,880,473,731,200.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 40.5607 | |
| αARCH | 0.3429 | |
| βGARCH | 0.6425 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 60.4763 | |
| γ2 | -115.1693 | |
| γ3 | 249.9628 | |
| γ4 | -425.3641 | |
| γ5 | 320.0227 | |
| γ6 | 44.0013 | |
| γ7 | -1,139.2365 | |
| γ8 | 2,897.4755 | |
| γ9 | -3,047.7967 | |
| γ10 | 1,299.3337 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.5607 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3429 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6425 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 60.4763 | |
| γ2 | -115.1693 | |
| γ3 | 249.9628 | |
| γ4 | -425.3641 | |
| γ5 | 320.0227 | |
| γ6 | 44.0013 | |
| γ7 | -1,139.2365 | |
| γ8 | 2,897.4755 | |
| γ9 | -3,047.7967 | |
| γ10 | 1,299.3337 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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