V-Lab
Range International Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,388.77%
decreased by 2.56%
1 Week
1,747.01%
increased by 355.68%
1 Month
2,728.81%
increased by 1,337.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 206 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1715 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2951 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7015 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 144.6951 | |
| γ2 | -259.1727 | |
| γ3 | 144.9441 | |
| γ4 | -48.7692 | |
| γ5 | 460.2781 | |
| γ6 | -1,870.0850 | |
| γ7 | 3,209.5640 | |
| γ8 | -2,545.0710 | |
| γ9 | 774.6545 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
206 days
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