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Range International Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

130.78%

increased by 28.05%

1 Week

130.65%

increased by 27.92%

1 Month

130.13%

increased by 27.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Range International Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 22, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 5.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.1358
102.87***
βGARCH0.9990
843.75***
νDF5.1030
51.39***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1358
102.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
843.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1030
51.39***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days