Range International Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
81.53%
increased by 26.38%
1 Week
81.45%
increased by 26.30%
1 Month
81.13%
increased by 25.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1656 | 288.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7485 | 232.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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