Range International Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
98.09%
1 Week
98.01%
1 Month
97.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 17.3193 | 2.04** |
| αscore | 0.1086 | 9.31*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 108.46*** |
| νDF | 6.0137 | 1.92* |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 17.3193 | 2.04** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1086 | 9.31*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 108.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0137 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Range International Limited Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities