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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.27%

increased by 0.56%

1 Week

17.18%

increased by 2.47%

1 Month

18.19%

increased by 3.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3615
5.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2366
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5675
5.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8891
1.12

Persistence:

0.568

Half-life:

1 days