V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
14.92%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
16.60%
increased by 2.90%
1 Month
17.33%
increased by 3.63%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2244 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2190 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4932 | 5.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3098 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.493
Half-life:
1 days
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