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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

14.92%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

16.60%

increased by 2.90%

1 Month

17.33%

increased by 3.63%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2244
6.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2190
2.19**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4932
5.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3098
0.93

Persistence:

0.493

Half-life:

1 days