Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.27%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
17.18%
increased by 2.47%
1 Month
18.19%
increased by 3.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3615 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2366 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5675 | 5.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8891 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.568
Half-life:
1 days
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