V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
19.24%
decreased by 6.56%
1 Week
18.90%
decreased by 6.90%
1 Month
18.67%
decreased by 7.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 8.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3718 | 2.30** |
| αARCH | 0.2396 | 0.71 |
| βGARCH | 0.6054 | 2.77*** |
| νDF | 8.0109 | 0.19 |
0.605
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3718 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2396 | 0.71 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6054 | 2.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0109 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.605
Half-life:
1 days
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