V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.55%
decreased by 7.11%
1 Week
16.64%
decreased by 6.02%
1 Month
17.10%
decreased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1793 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2006 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4643 | 4.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8416 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.464
Half-life:
1 days
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