Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
18.89%
increased by 1.99%
1 Week
18.72%
increased by 1.82%
1 Month
18.63%
increased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 11.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.5681 | 3.38*** |
| αscore | 0.2453 | 0.67 |
| βpersistence | 0.4991 | 1.89* |
| νDF | 11.1090 | 0.12 |
0.499
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.5681 | 3.38*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2453 | 0.67 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.4991 | 1.89* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.1090 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.499
Half-life:
1 days
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