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Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.43%

increased by 3.73%

1 Week

17.92%

increased by 3.22%

1 Month

17.68%

increased by 2.98%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 6.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2289
2.06**
αARCH0.1821
0.48
βGARCH0.4957
1.46
νDF6.2582
0.16

0.496

Persistence

1d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2289
2.06**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1821
0.48
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4957
1.46
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2582
0.16

Persistence:

0.496

Half-life:

1 days