V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.43%
increased by 3.73%
1 Week
17.92%
increased by 3.22%
1 Month
17.68%
increased by 2.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 6.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2289 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.1821 | 0.48 |
| βGARCH | 0.4957 | 1.46 |
| νDF | 6.2582 | 0.16 |
0.496
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2289 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1821 | 0.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4957 | 1.46 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2582 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.496
Half-life:
1 days
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