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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

19.24%

decreased by 6.56%

1 Week

18.90%

decreased by 6.90%

1 Month

18.67%

decreased by 7.13%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 8.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3718
2.30**
αARCH0.2396
0.71
βGARCH0.6054
2.77***
νDF8.0109
0.19

0.605

Persistence

1d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3718
2.30**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2396
0.71
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6054
2.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0109
0.19

Persistence:

0.605

Half-life:

1 days