Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

18.89%

increased by 1.99%

1 Week

18.72%

increased by 1.82%

1 Month

18.63%

increased by 1.73%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 11.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.5681
3.38***
αscore0.2453
0.67
βpersistence0.4991
1.89*
νDF11.1090
0.12

0.499

Persistence

1d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.5681
3.38***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.2453
0.67
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.4991
1.89*
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.1090
0.12

Persistence:

0.499

Half-life:

1 days