Skip to main content
V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

13.70%

decreased by 1.35%

1 Week

16.31%

increased by 1.26%

1 Month

17.53%

increased by 2.48%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2732
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2388
2.48**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5354
6.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6594
0.99

Persistence:

0.535

Half-life:

1 days