V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.31%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
8.11%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
7.69%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0254 | 2.26** |
| αARCH | 0.2956 | 1.73* |
| βGARCH | 0.5933 | 5.99*** |
| γleverage | -0.0179 | -0.06 |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 2.26** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2956 | 1.73* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5933 | 5.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0179 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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