V-Lab
Kaleon SpA APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
increased by 2.15%
1 Week
15.70%
increased by 1.75%
1 Month
15.44%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3613 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 0.99 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4487 | 6.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4950 | -1.88* |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.600
Half-life:
1 days
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