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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.10%

increased by 2.15%

1 Week

15.70%

increased by 1.75%

1 Month

15.44%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3613
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0547
0.99
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4487
6.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4950
-1.88*
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
3.16***

Persistence:

0.600

Half-life:

1 days