Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.26%
decreased by 2.51%
1 Week
44.69%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
52.05%
increased by 9.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2129 | 14.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6769 | 32.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0396 | -1.58 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5455 | 7.73*** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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