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V-Lab

Sofina SA APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

21.78%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

21.86%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

22.16%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sofina SA APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0205
9.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
5.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9666
287.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4672
5.30***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9559
19.21***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days