Sofina SA APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.78%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
21.86%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
22.16%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 9.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9666 | 287.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4672 | 5.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9559 | 19.21*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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