Fresenius SE & Co KGaA APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
29.18%
1 Week
29.29%
1 Month
29.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0391 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0521 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9402 | 95.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.2848 | 2.96*** |
| δpower | 1.6554 | 7.47*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0391 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0521 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9402 | 95.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2848 | 2.96*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6554 | 7.47*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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