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Fresenius SE & Co KGaA APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

29.18%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

29.29%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

29.70%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Fresenius SE & Co KGaA APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 7, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 164% more than positive returnsδ = 1.66 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0391
3.60***
αARCH0.0521
5.47***
βGARCH0.9402
95.89***
γleverage0.2848
2.96***
δpower1.6554
7.47***

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0391
3.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0521
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9402
95.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2848
2.96***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6554
7.47***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days