V-Lab
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.51%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
22.79%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
23.76%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 1992 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 4.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.7130 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0598 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9852 | 80.63*** |
| νDF | 4.6322 | 2.05** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7130 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9852 | 80.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6322 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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