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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	61
αARCH	0.0368	3.29***
βGARCH	0.7190	15.36***
γleverage	0.1094	4.26***
λ₁tau intercept	0.7139	2.97***
λ₂forecast adj.	0.8004	3.75***
λ₃tau persistence	0.0000	0.00

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	61
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0368	3.29***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7190	15.36***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.1094	4.26***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.7139	2.97***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.8004	3.75***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0000	0.00

V-Lab

Fresenius SE & Co KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Fresenius SE & Co KGaA Analyses