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V-Lab

Conpet SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.57%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

14.22%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

15.78%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Conpet SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 24, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 127% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1440
12.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5145
27.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1833
8.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
0.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0027
2.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9961
501.83***

Persistence:

0.750

Half-life:

2 days