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V-Lab

Conpet SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

0.02%

decreased by 4.64%

1 Week

656,668,277.90%

increased by 656,668,273.24%

1 Month

12,504,221,687,094,323,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 12,504,221,687,094,323,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Conpet SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 24, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7538
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4924
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.1973
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-