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V-Lab

Conpet SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

0.01%

decreased by 3.52%

1 Week

0.01%

decreased by 3.52%

1 Month

0.01%

decreased by 3.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Conpet SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 24, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7598
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4803
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.1747
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days