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V-Lab

Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.42%

increased by 9.76%

1 Week

31,749,658,643,834.26%

increased by 31,749,658,643,830.60%

1 Month

12,119,425,728,969,174,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 12,119,425,728,969,174,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2021 to Jul 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6243314768165359 trading days (~24775058603830.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8022
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3956
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.5222
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4009

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6243314768165359 days