V-Lab
Trusval Technology MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
34.81%
1 Week
38.26%
1 Month
40.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 30% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1895 | 18.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5800 | 19.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0440 | -2.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2872 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0844 | 1.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8775 | 9.13*** |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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