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V-Lab

Trusval Technology MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

34.81%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

38.26%

increased by 2.43%

1 Month

40.52%

increased by 4.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 30% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1895
18.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5800
19.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0440
-2.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2872
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0844
1.24
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8775
9.13***

Persistence:

0.748

Half-life:

2 days