V-Lab
Trusval Technology Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
40.21%
decreased by 5.68%
1 Week
41.61%
decreased by 4.28%
1 Month
44.52%
decreased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8896 | 2.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.3565 | 5.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6073 | 12.65*** |
| γleverage | -0.1267 | -1.44 |
0.900
Persistence7d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8896 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3565 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6073 | 12.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1267 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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