Skip to main content
V-Lab

Trusval Technology Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

39.45%

decreased by 2.54%

1 Week

42.15%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

46.27%

increased by 4.28%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:59 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6983
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1927
3.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6540
8.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.6466
0.23
γ20.0914
0.02
γ3-2.6287
-1.20
γ43.6969
1.88*
γ5-3.2341
-2.03**
γ61.6497
1.19
γ71.2617
1.04
γ8-2.9729
-2.75***
γ91.5579
1.27
γ100.6556
0.41

Persistence:

0.847

Half-life:

4 days