V-Lab
Trusval Technology Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.45%
decreased by 2.54%
1 Week
42.15%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
46.27%
increased by 4.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6983 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1927 | 3.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6540 | 8.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.6466 | 0.23 |
| γ2 | 0.0914 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -2.6287 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 3.6969 | 1.88* |
| γ5 | -3.2341 | -2.03** |
| γ6 | 1.6497 | 1.19 |
| γ7 | 1.2617 | 1.04 |
| γ8 | -2.9729 | -2.75*** |
| γ9 | 1.5579 | 1.27 |
| γ10 | 0.6556 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
Other Trusval Technology Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities