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V-Lab

Trusval Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

48.61%

decreased by 6.90%

1 Week

48.12%

decreased by 7.39%

1 Month

47.28%

decreased by 8.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7032
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1923
3.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6578
8.43***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.7026
0.24
γ20.0163
0.00
γ3-2.5913
-1.16
γ43.6313
1.82*
γ5-3.0870
-1.92*
γ61.3773
0.99
γ71.6317
1.36
γ8-3.3459
-3.11***
γ91.9886
1.71*
γ10-0.1982
-0.24

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days