V-Lab
Trusval Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
31.84%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
34.97%
increased by 1.61%
1 Month
39.62%
increased by 6.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6976 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1938 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6533 | 8.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.6578 | 0.23 |
| γ2 | 0.0394 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -2.5426 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 3.6351 | 1.87* |
| γ5 | -3.2620 | -2.05** |
| γ6 | 1.8137 | 1.29 |
| γ7 | 1.0264 | 0.83 |
| γ8 | -2.8618 | -2.67*** |
| γ9 | 1.7351 | 1.51 |
| γ10 | -0.0704 | -0.08 |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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