V-Lab
Trusval Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
48.61%
decreased by 6.90%
1 Week
48.12%
decreased by 7.39%
1 Month
47.28%
decreased by 8.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7032 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1923 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6578 | 8.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7026 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.0163 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -2.5913 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | 3.6313 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | -3.0870 | -1.92* |
| γ6 | 1.3773 | 0.99 |
| γ7 | 1.6317 | 1.36 |
| γ8 | -3.3459 | -3.11*** |
| γ9 | 1.9886 | 1.71* |
| γ10 | -0.1982 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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