V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.41%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
24.88%
increased by 1.30%
1 Month
27.82%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1058 | 4.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2152 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5838 | 15.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0668 | -1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.1405 | 2.17** |
| γ3 | -0.1485 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.1353 | 4.06*** |
| γ5 | -0.0966 | -3.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0603 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -0.0660 | -2.34** |
| γ8 | 0.0884 | 3.25*** |
| γ9 | -0.0629 | -2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.799
Half-life:
3 days
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