VIEL & Cie SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.02%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
27.13%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
28.52%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0919 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2142 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5823 | 15.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0686 | -1.51 |
| γ2 | 0.1431 | 2.20** |
| γ3 | -0.1498 | -3.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.1362 | 4.09*** |
| γ5 | -0.0973 | -3.28*** |
| γ6 | 0.0612 | 2.05** |
| γ7 | -0.0672 | -2.37** |
| γ8 | 0.0891 | 3.24*** |
| γ9 | -0.0630 | -2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
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