V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.20%
increased by 2.99%
1 Week
26.91%
increased by 3.70%
1 Month
27.83%
increased by 4.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0654 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2127 | 9.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5885 | 15.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0724 | -1.59 |
| γ2 | 0.1472 | 2.24** |
| γ3 | -0.1499 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.1354 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.0959 | -3.21*** |
| γ6 | 0.0590 | 1.96** |
| γ7 | -0.0643 | -2.27** |
| γ8 | 0.0864 | 3.17*** |
| γ9 | -0.0613 | -2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.801
Half-life:
3 days
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