V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
27.71%
increased by 3.71%
1 Week
28.22%
increased by 4.22%
1 Month
28.89%
increased by 4.89%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1394 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2136 | 9.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5836 | 15.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0607 | -1.37 |
| γ2 | 0.1327 | 2.07** |
| γ3 | -0.1460 | -3.62*** |
| γ4 | 0.1345 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.0967 | -3.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0603 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -0.0658 | -2.34** |
| γ8 | 0.0890 | 3.30*** |
| γ9 | -0.0642 | -3.04*** |
0.797
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1394 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2136 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5836 | 15.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0607 | -1.37 |
| γ2 | 0.1327 | 2.07** |
| γ3 | -0.1460 | -3.62*** |
| γ4 | 0.1345 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.0967 | -3.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0603 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -0.0658 | -2.34** |
| γ8 | 0.0890 | 3.30*** |
| γ9 | -0.0642 | -3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
Other VIEL & Cie SA Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities