V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.50%
increased by 4.09%
1 Week
28.74%
increased by 4.33%
1 Month
29.05%
increased by 4.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0391 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2128 | 9.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5843 | 15.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0766 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 0.1532 | 2.34** |
| γ3 | -0.1532 | -3.79*** |
| γ4 | 0.1382 | 4.15*** |
| γ5 | -0.0977 | -3.30*** |
| γ6 | 0.0600 | 2.01** |
| γ7 | -0.0655 | -2.32** |
| γ8 | 0.0884 | 3.23*** |
| γ9 | -0.0632 | -2.92*** |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
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