VIEL & Cie SA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
25.93%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
28.10%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
31.71%
increased by 3.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6151 | 29.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2165 | 41.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6520 | 87.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0418 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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