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VIEL & Cie SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

27.31%

increased by 1.21%

1 Week

29.15%

increased by 3.05%

1 Month

32.89%

increased by 6.79%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of VIEL & Cie SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.3445
2.56**
αARCH0.1558
6.91***
βGARCH0.9053
25.18***
νDF3.1138
5.41***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3445
2.56**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1558
6.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9053
25.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1138
5.41***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days