V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
31.16%
increased by 6.73%
1 Week
32.19%
increased by 7.76%
1 Month
34.40%
increased by 9.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.3602 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.1561 | 6.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9051 | 25.05*** |
| νDF | 3.1102 | 5.42*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3602 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1561 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9051 | 25.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1102 | 5.42*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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