VIEL & Cie SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.26%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
31.49%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
34.09%
increased by 3.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3757 | 10.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 27.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9049 | 100.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1168 | 21.65*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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