Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.04%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
32.09%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
32.27%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3848 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9782 | 149.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3108 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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