V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.58%
increased by 1.05%
1 Week
32.60%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
32.66%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3322 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0214 | 3.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9791 | 164.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3457 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
Other Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities