Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
25.74%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
25.94%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
26.66%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 5.79 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.7226 | 0.73 |
| αscore | 0.0289 | 1.12 |
| βpersistence | 0.9872 | 70.47*** |
| νDF | 5.7936 | 0.32 |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.7226 | 0.73 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0289 | 1.12 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9872 | 70.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7936 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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