V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.91%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
31.96%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
32.11%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3144 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0211 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 170.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3653 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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