V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
33.37%
increased by 1.43%
1 Week
33.35%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
33.29%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2981 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0204 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9800 | 178.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3692 | 2.08** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
Other Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities