V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
31.59%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
31.89%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
32.00%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.80) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2513 | 20.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2315 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1789 | 5.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8039 | 7.72*** |
Persistence:
0.410
Half-life:
1 days
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