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V-Lab

Seshasayee Paper&B AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

34.26%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

36.11%

increased by 2.01%

1 Month

41.36%

increased by 7.26%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Seshasayee Paper&B AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.35) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4331
22.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
37.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8534
223.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3490
-3.20***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days