Seshasayee Paper&B AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
34.26%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
36.11%
increased by 2.01%
1 Month
41.36%
increased by 7.26%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.35) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4331 | 22.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 37.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8534 | 223.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3490 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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