V-Lab
Seshasayee Paper&B Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.46%
increased by 4.22%
1 Week
37.83%
increased by 4.59%
1 Month
38.80%
increased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4956 | 14.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 6.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8491 | 32.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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