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V-Lab

Seshasayee Paper&B Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

37.46%

increased by 4.22%

1 Week

37.83%

increased by 4.59%

1 Month

38.80%

increased by 5.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Seshasayee Paper&B S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4956
14.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0903
6.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8491
32.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0013
5.13***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days