V-Lab
Jinbei Automotive Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
44.76%
increased by 14.64%
1 Week
43.92%
increased by 13.80%
1 Month
41.66%
increased by 11.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 1992 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3926 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1106 | 8.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8203 | 40.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0319 | -0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0755 | 1.64 |
| γ3 | -0.0720 | -3.16*** |
| γ4 | 0.0487 | 2.99*** |
| γ5 | -0.0425 | -2.84*** |
| γ6 | 0.0346 | 2.99*** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3926 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 8.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8203 | 40.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0319 | -0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0755 | 1.64 |
| γ3 | -0.0720 | -3.16*** |
| γ4 | 0.0487 | 2.99*** |
| γ5 | -0.0425 | -2.84*** |
| γ6 | 0.0346 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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