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V-Lab

Unicap Modaraba Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

74.67%

increased by 6.94%

1 Week

75.97%

increased by 8.24%

1 Month

76.76%

increased by 9.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Unicap Modaraba S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 2012 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3724
3.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1846
5.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4096
3.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ11.3073
3.15***
γ2-1.7274
-3.12***
γ31.0183
3.07***
γ4-0.8567
-2.47**
γ5-0.2063
-0.49
γ61.1104
2.66***
γ7-1.1170
-2.87***
γ80.6131
1.50
γ9-0.0701
-0.23

Persistence:

0.594

Half-life:

1 days