V-Lab
Unicap Modaraba Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
74.67%
increased by 6.94%
1 Week
75.97%
increased by 8.24%
1 Month
76.76%
increased by 9.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3724 | 3.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1846 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4096 | 3.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 1.3073 | 3.15*** |
| γ2 | -1.7274 | -3.12*** |
| γ3 | 1.0183 | 3.07*** |
| γ4 | -0.8567 | -2.47** |
| γ5 | -0.2063 | -0.49 |
| γ6 | 1.1104 | 2.66*** |
| γ7 | -1.1170 | -2.87*** |
| γ8 | 0.6131 | 1.50 |
| γ9 | -0.0701 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.594
Half-life:
1 days
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