V-Lab
Unicap Modaraba Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
71.61%
decreased by 3.96%
1 Week
75.83%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
79.34%
increased by 3.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3159 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1565 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5392 | 3.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.3328 | 5.28*** |
| γ2 | -3.2752 | -5.43*** |
| γ3 | 1.8968 | 4.28*** |
| γ4 | -1.3039 | -2.84*** |
| γ5 | 0.1736 | 0.36 |
| γ6 | -0.0021 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.6866 | 1.21 |
| γ8 | -1.0230 | -2.01** |
| γ9 | 0.7434 | 1.41 |
| γ10 | -0.1843 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.696
Half-life:
2 days
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