Unicap Modaraba Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
80.63%
decreased by 5.40%
1 Week
80.39%
decreased by 5.64%
1 Month
80.21%
decreased by 5.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2335 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1750 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4531 | 3.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.3357 | 5.38*** |
| γ2 | -3.2877 | -5.56*** |
| γ3 | 1.9086 | 4.37*** |
| γ4 | -1.2992 | -2.85*** |
| γ5 | 0.1794 | 0.38 |
| γ6 | -0.0718 | -0.14 |
| γ7 | 0.8247 | 1.48 |
| γ8 | -1.1676 | -2.30** |
| γ9 | 0.8316 | 1.58 |
| γ10 | -0.2110 | -0.50 |
Persistence:
0.628
Half-life:
1 days
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