Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
101.67%
decreased by 15.49%
1 Week
101.48%
decreased by 15.68%
1 Month
101.01%
decreased by 16.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0086 | 5.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.2356 | 2.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6902 | 5.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0842 | 0.07 |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0086 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2356 | 2.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6902 | 5.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0842 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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