V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
126.30%
increased by 8.32%
1 Week
126.47%
increased by 8.49%
1 Month
127.00%
increased by 9.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 65.7454 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2126 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9643 | 53.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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