V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
81.91%
decreased by 5.60%
1 Week
85.72%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Month
96.06%
increased by 8.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 54.1770 | 0.61 |
| αARCH | 0.2196 | 1.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.9517 | 8.77*** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 54.1770 | 0.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2196 | 1.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9517 | 8.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
Other Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities