V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
79.14%
decreased by 7.73%
1 Week
83.41%
decreased by 3.46%
1 Month
95.42%
increased by 8.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.6663 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2176 | 5.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9600 | 43.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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