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V-Lab

Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

76.95%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Week

81.80%

increased by 2.85%

1 Month

95.02%

increased by 16.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst60.3427
0.70
αARCH0.2194
1.26
βGARCH0.9566
10.49***
νDF200.0000
0.02

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.3427
0.70
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2194
1.26
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9566
10.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.02

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days