Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
80.45%
1 Week
82.10%
1 Month
85.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 110% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4261 | 0.47 |
| αARCH | 0.1027 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.8162 | 11.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.4234 | -2.03** |
| δpower | 0.8200 | 0.80 |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4261 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8162 | 11.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4234 | -2.03** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8200 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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