V-Lab
Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
40.44%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
41.90%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
46.29%
increased by 5.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. The volatility power δ = 2.75 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 17.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 115.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0189 | -1.30 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7537 | 22.73*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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