Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.89%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Week
49.65%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Month
52.11%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. The volatility power δ = 2.74 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 17.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 114.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0209 | -1.43 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7416 | 22.61*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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