V-Lab
Bella Casa Fashion & Retail AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
43.10%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Week
44.73%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
47.53%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2928 | 4.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1464 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7186 | 16.89*** |
| γleverage | -0.4277 | -0.71 |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2928 | 4.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1464 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7186 | 16.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4277 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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