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V-Lab

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.31%

decreased by 2.81%

1 Week

44.21%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

47.46%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bella Casa Fashion & Retail AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.42) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2973
19.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1491
24.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7169
66.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4188
-2.78***

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days