Bella Casa Fashion & Retail AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.31%
decreased by 2.81%
1 Week
44.21%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
47.46%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.42) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2973 | 19.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 24.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7169 | 66.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4188 | -2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
Other Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on International Equities