V-Lab
Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.00%
decreased by 3.64%
1 Week
52.01%
decreased by 3.63%
1 Month
52.06%
decreased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.28) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4705 | 15.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1207 | 28.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8349 | 142.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2779 | -3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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