Skip to main content
V-Lab

Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

61.74%

increased by 3.65%

1 Week

61.75%

increased by 3.66%

1 Month

61.79%

increased by 3.70%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0026
4.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1015
31.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8985
301.42***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-